Indiana远程投资from Bay Area

去年在Indiana找到了一些靠谱(knock wood)的公司,投了一个SFH,目前看还不错。在杠杆和tax benefits之前回报率在10%以上。2016 准备再来一到两个。找到这个Indiana University总结的outlook。总结:想升值的基本不用看Indy,现金流不错,就业形势良好。

The single-family housing sector found its way back to stable growth in 2015, while the multi-family housing sector continued its strong run. Consumer confidence, job growth and low interest rates are the primary drivers that bring potential homebuyers to the housing market. Considering these factors, along with an important projected increase in new single-family inventory, the single-family housing market is forecasted to continue on a positive path in 2016.

For example, the National Association of Realtors forecasts that existing home sales will increase 3.5 percent from 2015 levels, and new single-family home sales will increase 29.3 percent nationally (see Table 1). Housing starts are projected to increase 17.2 percent, with single-family units increasing 23.2 percent and multi-family units up 6.5 percent. Median home prices for both existing and new homes are expected to increase 4.1 percent.

Table 1: National Housing Outlook

History Forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016
Home Sales (thousands)
Existing Home Sales 5,090 4,940 5,284 5,468
New Single-Family Sales 429 439 527 682
Home Sales (% Change – Year Ago)
Existing Home Sales 9.2 -3.0 7.0 3.5
New Single-Family Sales 16.3 2.3 20.1 29.3
Median Home Prices ($ thousands)
Existing Home Sales $197.1 $208.3 $220.3 $229.5
New Single-Family Sales $268.9 $282.8 $288.9 $300.6
Median Home Prices (% Change – Year Ago)
Existing Home Sales 11.5 5.7 5.8 4.1
New Single-Family Sales 9.7 5.2 2.2 4.1
Housing Affordability Index* 177 164 162 129

* The housing affordability index measures the ability of a family earning the median income to purchase a median-priced home. Higher index values indicate increased affordability.
Source: National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: October 2015”

Looking closely at these numbers one sees the importance of new home sales in 2016 and the critical need for new housing starts. The excess of existing home inventory at favorable pricing, resulting from the recent economic downturn, is mostly gone. To achieve strong numbers in 2016, new inventory must be added. The U.S. is currently experiencing a housing shortage, but home builders have been cautious in bringing new homes to market even while low interest rates have persisted. The good news is that builder confidence has been “steady or increasing,” according to a monthly survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.

The likelihood of continuing improvement in the single-family housing market in our nation’s cities and towns largely depends on job growth and how wages compare to that locale’s housing prices. When differentiating single-family markets across the country, it is important to remember that a key factor of mortgage qualification is a household’s monthly gross take-home pay relative to its payment for housing costs (the total of the mortgage payment, real estate taxes and home insurance). Holding all other things equal, communities with positive job growth and a favorable margin between wages and housing costs are more likely to experience a more stable single-family housing market than communities with narrower house affordability margins.

Thus, a less positive trend for the housing market nationally is housing affordability. The National Association of Realtors projects a change in this index from 162 to 129 from 2015 to 2016. Because employment is expected to stay strong and interest rates—while increasing—remain relatively attractive, this trend shouldn’t negatively impact 2016.

Another potential concern is the existence of bubbles in particular submarkets. In areas where demand was strong and supply was constrained, values may have increased to an unrealistic level considering the extended period of attractive mortgage rates.

How Does the Indiana Housing Market Fare with This Reasoning?

In terms of employment, Indiana is experiencing very positive trends. According to the Indiana Business Research Center and the Center for Econometric Model Research, Indiana’s employment growth will continue at a pace of 43,000 jobs per year through 2018. In addition, unemployment is expected to decline during this period and Hoosier personal income will rise faster than the nation (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Indiana Employment and Unemployment Rate Forecast, 2014 Q1 to 2018 Q4


Source: Indiana University Center for Econometric Model Research and Indiana Business Research Center (released in June 2015)

In terms of existing home sales, Indiana beat the nation by 3 percentage points for the 12 months ending June 2015. In contrast, during this same period, Indiana lagged the nation in home price appreciation by 3.3 percentage points and in residential building permits by 13.2 percentage points (see Table 2). Considering these results together, they are probably the consequence of Indiana having a larger supply of existing inventory carrying over from the downturn—a positive for Hoosier homebuyers compared to others around the country that were facing a shortage of inventory.

Table 2: Mid-Year Comparison of Indiana and U.S. Housing Markets

U.S. Indiana
Existing Home Sales, July 2014 to June 2015, Year-over-Year Change 3.2% 6.2%
House Price Appreciation, 2014 Q1 to 2015 Q1 5.8% 3.5%
Residential Building Permits, July 2014 to June 2015, Year-over-Year Change 10.3% -2.9%
Foreclosure Rate, 2015 Q2 2.1% 2.3%
Housing Affordability Index, 2014* 164 239

* The housing affordability index measures the ability of a family earning the median income to purchase a median-priced home. Higher index values indicate increased affordability. The value shown for Indiana is for the Indianapolis metro.
Source: IBRC, using data from the Indiana Association of Realtors, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Finance Agency, U.S. Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association and CoreLogic

According to the Indiana Association of Realtors, Indiana’s year-to-date 2015 closed sales is trending higher than 2014, while its median sales price increased 5.9 percent to $134,000 (seeTable 3).

Table 3: Indiana Housing Overview

September 2014 September 2015 Percent Change Year-to-Date 2014 Year-to-Date 2015 Percent Change
Closed Sales 6,958 7,282 4.7% 56,752 61,509 8.4%
Median Sales Price $128,000 $132,500 3.5% $126,500 $134,000 5.9%

Source: Indiana Association of Realtors

When looking at housing costs, Indiana typically has stable housing values. That is, Indiana homeowners usually experience small swings in value as economic conditions and world events take hold year to year.

While Indiana trailed the country in home price appreciation over the past year, as seen inTable 2, its housing affordability remains attractive, with an affordability index value of 239 for the Indianapolis metro area, as interest rates remain low.

Considering the ratio of sales price to income has remained stable (see Figure 2), it follows that Indiana generally provides a stable job base and a good wage relative to housing costs.

Figure 2: Ratio of Median Sales Price to Median Household Income, U.S. and Select Metro Areas


Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, using data from Moody’s Data Buffet®

If Indiana’s economy continues its positive run through 2016, with more jobs and better wages, it will mean positive results for the housing market. On the other hand, if job growth slows, wages stagnate or interest rates rise more than expected, Hoosiers will still fare well compared to less stable parts of the country.


Overall, the 2016 single-family housing market is looking positive for Indiana and the country. Job growth is improving and other economic fundamentals are positive. Thus, consumer confidence should be high. 2016 should see the single-family housing market remain strong for both Indiana and the nation.

天上能掉那几种馅饼WTF is a “passive income”?


Most common passive income:

  • Rental income from properties that other people manage and repair
  • Royalties from books, music and other creative works
  • Income from businesses you own but don’t operate
  • Owning vending machines, laundromats, arcade games and other hands-off entreprises with one or two employees
  • Peer-to-peer lending
  • Dividends from stocks and ETFs
  • REITs and other income-oriented market investments
  • Bonds and bond ladders

What would you do in real estate with $200k in cash?

Cash counting stock equity refreshment for google

Is it a good problem to have?

For many Bay Area people looking for a single family home in top school district, 200K is barely the down payment you need to buy your own home. But assuming you have your primary residency or you are worried about the bay area market as a whole, here are some suggestions from the forum:

One investor from IL says

Buy a McDonalds franchise!  McDonalds….the world’s largest real estate company that also sells burgers.  Seriously, like @Ryan D. said your options are endless.  Make money, but do it in a way that is fun and makes you happy.  Do you want to be a landlord?  Do you want to do multiple projects at once?  BRRR?  For me, I would use it as a down payment on an apartment complex, hire a great property manager, and sit back and collect.  Or maybe I would BRRR.  Depends how I’m feeling that week.  🙂


One investor from FL says

1. 30% or $60k in REITs.  They have a rate of return much higher than a savings account, percentage depends on the trust, less risk than stocks, and no flipping or management involved.  

2. 30% or $60k – Purchase a SFR or CONDO in Broward Cty FL to LEASE-OPTION to a tenant that wants to purchase YOUR property, not just rent it.  They will pay you monthly cash flow.  The option terms negotiable, a portion of the rent will go toward your tenants future down payment to purchase the property 3 – 8 years later.  Tenant maintenance CAN be part of the deal.  

3. 40% or $80k – Vacant Land Investment.  It is a buy, hold, and WAIT strategy, but VERY lucrative.  Investors scoop up & sell the land early, pre-development.  The big developers might take a few years to several years to come back and purchase, but when they do . . . this is when you cash your check.

Investor from Texas


I can answer you question with what I DID with 200+k.

Bought a small apartment from a mom & pop RE, in a great location.

Spent another 90k out of pocket for the rehab.

Filled with qualified tenants and cut expenses almost in 1/2.

Now it cash flow +/-15% and is worth almost double what I paid.

In a another year, refinance some cash out and repeat the possess.

Investor from Alabama

I would buy 8 $25,000 houses and have them rented out through section 8 for at least $800.00 each bringing in over $6400 a month. I would be patient and look for 3/2 or 4/2 houses that need a little work in a decent neighborhood but can be purchased and fixed up for under $25,000.00.






16 达拉斯:中间房价:214,200;月供:1,235;年薪:53,000

15 休斯顿:中间房价:221,100;月供:1,252;年薪:53,500

14 费城:中间房价231,700;月供:1,269;年薪:54,500

13 巴尔的摩:中间房价:254,500;月供:1,303;年薪:56,000

12 芝加哥:中间房价:230,500;月供:1,424;年薪:61,000

11 萨克拉门托:中间房价:291,000;月供:1,435;年薪:61,500

10 迈阿密:中间房价:289,900;月供:1,476;年薪:63,500

9 波特兰:中间房价:314,800;月供:1,516;年薪:65,000

8 丹佛:中间房价:362,900;月供:1,631;年薪:70,000

7 西雅图:中间房价:385,300;月供:1,822;年薪:78,000

6 华盛顿:中间房价:403,800;月供:1,937;年薪:83,000

5 波士顿:中间房价:414,600;月供:2,010;年薪:86,000

4 洛杉矶:中间房价:445,200;月供:2,060;年薪:88,500

3 纽约:中间房价:410,400;月供:2,117;年薪:91,000

2 圣地亚哥:中间房价:547,800;月供:2,446;年薪:105,000

1 旧金山:中间房价:841,600;月供:3,684;年薪:158,000

Cheat in the Game Problem[周末摩思]

Cheat in the Game Problem
Problem Description

Alice and Bob are playing a game. At the beginning, the judge takes out a stone pile of W stones and a black box containing N cards. Every card has a number Ai on it. Alice and Bob takes turns to draw a card from the box. Of course, they will not know the number until they draw the card out of the box. The player then takes away Ai stones from the pile if it is possible. If there are not enough stones, the player draws a card again. The winner is the player who takes away the last stone. Once the box gets empty, they brings back all cards and stones and play the game again until there is a winner.

Now your best friend Alice begs you, the judge, to help her cheat in the game. You have already known the number of cards in the box and their numbers. Given a integer M, You want to know how many values, less or equal to M, W can take so that you can make sure Alice will be the winner of the game.


There are several test cases.
The first line of each test case contains two integers N (1 ≤ N ≤ 10000) and M (1 ≤ M ≤ 100000).
The second line contains N integers Ai (1 ≤ AiM). The input ends with two zeros


For each test case output how many values you can choose for W so that Alice will be the winner without fail.

Sample Input

3 8
1 5 7 
0 0

Sample Output



We say that Alice is surely to win if and only if the possibility that Alice wins is greater than zero and the possibility that Bob wins is zero. For the sample, W = 1, 5, 7.





  • 当n为偶数时,{先手一张,后手一张}循环n/2次拿完石头,后手玩家必胜。
  • 当n为奇数时,{先手一张,后手一张}循环n/2 + 1次拿完石头,先手玩家必胜。





  1. bool dp[100000 + 16][2]; // dp[W][0]=true表示W可以分解成偶数个数;dp[W][1]=true表示W可以分解成奇数个数

  1. if (dp[ A[i]][0])
  2.     dp[j][1] = true;    // 偶数+1=奇数
  3. if (dp[ A[i]][1])
  4.     dp[j][0] = true;    // 奇数+1=偶数


  1. if (dp[i][1] && !dp[i][0])  // 只能表示成奇数


  1. #include <iostream>
  2. #include <algorithm>
  3. #include <cstring>
  5. using namespace std;
  7. int A[10000 + 16];
  8. bool dp[100000 + 16][2]; // dp[W][0]=true表示W可以分解成偶数个数;dp[W][1]=true表示W可以分解成奇数个数
  10. int main()
  11. {
  12. #ifndef ONLINE_JUDGE
  13.     freopen(“in.txt”, “r”, stdin);
  14. #endif
  15.     int N, M;
  16.     while (scanf(“%d%d”, &N, &M), N)
  17.     {
  18.         for (int i = 0; i < N; ++i)
  19.         {
  20.             scanf(“%d”, A + i);
  21.         }
  22.         sort(A, A + N);
  23.         memset(dp, 0, sizeof(dp));
  24.         dp[A[0]][1] = true;     // W=A_0可以由A_0这一个数构成
  25.         for (int i = 1; i < N; ++i)
  26.         {
  27.             for (int j = M; j > A[i]; j)
  28.             {
  29.                 if (dp[ A[i]][0])
  30.                     dp[j][1] = true;    // 偶数+1=奇数
  31.                 if (dp[ A[i]][1])
  32.                     dp[j][0] = true;    // 奇数+1=偶数
  33.             }
  34.             dp[A[i]][1] = true;         // W=A_i可以由A_i这一个数构成
  35.         }
  36.         int ans = 0;
  37.         for (int i = 1; i < M + 1; ++i)
  38.         {
  39.             if (dp[i][1] && !dp[i][0])  // 只能表示成奇数
  40.                 ++ans;
  41.         }
  42.         printf(“%d\n”, ans);
  43.     }
  44. #ifndef ONLINE_JUDGE
  45.     fclose(stdin);
  46. #endif
  47.     return 0;
  48. }

California investors have to register their non-CA LLC with CA state

One of the best benefits of real estate investment is to save on tax. However, their is a state that makes it very difficult if not impossible to avoid tax for investment out of state. One of the most popular question for newbies is: “I’m a California resident with an LLC formed in Ohio / Indiana / OR-turnkey-haven that holds my properties in that state.  Do I have to register my LLC with the California Secretary of State and file a California tax return and pay the $800 LLC Tax every year?” WTH, yes, you got the number right,



The answer is almost always YES since California considers the LLC as “doing business in California” and therefore required to do all the things mentioned in the first paragraph above if you, as a member of the LLC, do anything on the LLC’s behalf while you are in California.  Below are two excerpts from FTB Form 3556 that I’m pretty sure indicts the whole lot of you!

I hope this clarifies the issue.  Feel free to reach out with any questions.



所有开发,建筑成本加起来,为$160 一尺;

这是比较有经验的行家的数据,能做到这样才算合情合理,即使如此, 5.51%年回报率大家看了都没兴趣。因此,我们能看到大兴土木的,大多是有规模和边际效应的开发商,散户动不动求杠杆,想都不用想

然而假如在少数高度发展的城市,如纽约附近,湾区和南加等地区,或者大城市的中心地带,情形就不同了,同样的例子,只是地价大大的贵了,而租金却成倍增加。我们假如把地价设在二百万而租金设在二千一个月,年回报率就变成10.26%, 再或者可租到二千五一个月,那么年回报率就高达13.34%了,如果更牛的地王,租近三千,回报率就超过15%。妙的是,预期回报率高,就可以使用扛杆,扛杆把回报率抬到更高。不选对的,只选贵的



湾区的可以参考这篇:Must Read for Bay Area Investor: San Francisco Real Estate Cycles in past 30 Years


2005到2007如是,身边的朋友都是agent了,大部分人没生意做,所以很多Subcontractor, 如铺地板地毯的,做水管工的,做电工等等都部分或者全部主业转移做“建筑商”去追求建新房高利润了。最后危机一来大多让银行Foreclosure。



Setup Eclipse and Gradle and Build a Java project


We will discuss about the following two topics:

  1. How to setup Eclipse Gradle Plugin
  2. How to Develop Java Simple Example with Eclipse Gradle Plugin

Gradle uses it’s own DSL(Domain Specific Language) Groovy-based scripts to write build scripts. Unlike Ant and Maven, it does not use complex XML build scripts. Gradle is developed using Java and configuration elements are developed using Groovy. It uses Groovy to write build scripts.

To understand Gradle DSL scripts, we should have some knowledge about Groovy basics. Please go through some Groovy tutorials before going through this post.

Groovy is a Dynamic Programming Language and it’s syntax similar to Java Programming Language. It is very easy to learn for a Java Developer.

Gradle Build Scripts

Now we will start writing simple Gradle build scripts. As we are already familiar with Ant and Maven build scripts, we know what is the starting point to start writing build scripts.

First and foremost thing we should know is Gradle default build script file name. Like Ant’s default build script name is build.xml and Maven’s default build script name is pom.xml, Gradle’s default build script name is “build.gradle”. When we run “gradle” command, it searches for this default file available in the current working directory. If it finds, it executes that build script. Otherwise, displays some useful default help message.

We will use Eclipse Gradle Plugin to develop and test all our Gradle examples. Before working with simple examples, first setup Gradle Plugin with Eclipse IDE

Setup Gradle Plugin with Eclipse IDE

I’m using Eclipse 4.4 Luna IDE. You can use same steps for other Eclipse versions too.

    • Open “Eclipse Marketplace…” from “Help” menu. Type “gradle” in Search box as shown below


    • Click on “Install” button for “Gradle Integration for Eclipse(4.4) 3.6.4.RELEASE” option to install Gradle Eclipse Plugin


    • Accept license by clicking radio button and click on “Finish” button.


This step installs Eclipse Gradle plugin and restarts Eclipse IDE. Now we can start developing applications using Gradle Build tool.

Gradle Simple Java Example

Now we are going to develop a Java Simple Example with Eclipse Gradle Plugin. Please use the following steps to develop and test this application.

    • Click on “File >> New >> Other” to open “New” Wizard window to create new Java Gradle Project.

Select “Gradle Project” option under “Gradle” Category as shown below:


Click on “Next” Button to see “New Gradle Project” Window as shown below


    • In “New Gradle Project” Window, we need to provide two details
      1. Please provide our project name: “JavaGradleSimpleExample”
      2. Select “Java Quickstart” option from “Sample project” Dropdown box


Now click on “Finish” Button to create new Java Gradle project.

    • Now our Java Gradle project structure looks like this:


If you observe this project structure, Gradle Project is same as Maven Project structure. Yes, Gradle uses Maven Project structure but instead of pom.xml file, we need to use build.gradle file.

    • Our project build.gradle file contains this content:
apply plugin: 'java'
apply plugin: 'eclipse'
sourceCompatibility = 1.5
version = '1.0'
jar {
    manifest {
        attributes 'Implementation-Title': 'Gradle Quickstart',
                   'Implementation-Version': version
repositories {
dependencies {
compile group:'commons-collections',name:'commons-collections',version:'3.2'
testCompile group: 'junit', name: 'junit', version: '4.+'
test {
    systemProperties 'property': 'value'
uploadArchives {
    repositories {
       flatDir {
           dirs 'repos'

NOTE:- If you don’t understand this file content at this stage, don’t worry. We will discuss this file content in detail in coming posts and also provide you one post about Gradle and Maven build scripts differences in detail.

    • This default Java Gradle project, creates one Java file: and one as shown below.

package org.gradle;
import org.apache.commons.collections.list.GrowthList;
public class Person {
    private final String name;
    public Person(String name) { = name;
        new GrowthList();
    public String getName() {
        return name;

package org.gradle;
import org.junit.Test;
import static org.junit.Assert.*;
public class PersonTest {
    public void canConstructAPersonWithAName() {
        Person person = new Person("Larry");
        assertEquals("Larry", person.getName());

It does NOT much logic. It just created a Person POJO class and one JUnit to test it.

    • It’s time to run our application. Please use the following steps to build and test our Gradle build script
      1. Right click on our “JavaGradleSimpleExample” Project’s build.gradle file and select “Run As” >> “Gradle build” option as shown below:


      1. It opens “Edit Configuration” Wizard window as shown below


Here observe “Type tasks in the editor below. Use + to activate content assistant.” text.

      1. We need to type our required Gradle commands. When we keep control point in that Editor, it will display all available Gradle commands as shown below


      1. Now type “build” Gradle command in that Text editor as shown below.


      1. Click on “Apply” button to apply our changes. Then click on “Run” button to start our Gradle build commnad “gradle build”

Observe the Eclipse IDE Console log.


If you observe the console output, it shows “BUILD SUCCESSFUL” message. That means our Gradle build command has executed successfully.

When we run this Grald command “gradle build”, it does the following things:

    1. It compiles both Java files
    2. It generate jar file with name “JavaGradleSimpleExample-1.0.jar” at ${PROJECT_ROOT_DIR}\build\libs that is “JavaGradleSimpleExample\build\libs” as shown below:


  1. It executes JUnit file

If something goes wrong in any one of these steps, we will see “BUILD FAILED” error message.

That’s it about basic Gradle Example. We will explore build.gralde file content and Gradle commands in coming posts.