泡沫了吗?美国各大房产市场价格相比2006/07高峰如何?

333books presents you the MSA(metropolitan statistical area) data. As of April 2016, San Francisco Metro is currently 4.2% above the July 2007 peak.

7 MSA are in positive territory (i.e., price higher than previous peak)

1. Denver           16.4%    above the previous peak
2. Dallas             13.9%   above the previous peak
3. Portland          6.5%    above the previous peak
4. San Francisco 4.2%    above the previous peak
5. Seattle             2.5%    above the previous peak
6. Charlotte          2.3%   above the previous peak
7. Boston             2.3%   above the previous peak

【原创】看图说话:从失业率看为什么现在不是投资湾区的好时机(2016)

以下均为个人看法,欢迎讨论。

最近和几个投资房产的朋友聊聊天,大家基本同意这波湾区房价主要是科技产业的发展对人才的需求推动起来的。由于科技产业需要的人才多,周边的产业也得到了一定量的发展。

 

作为一个软件工程师,我觉得很可悲的是大部分科技企业的人才在这一波房价的增长里面都没有直接获利,相反是一边付着高房价(房租),一边背着“高科技企业让房租飞涨,我们都住不起房了”的骂名。这波真正得利的开发商(和一些有眼光的老一辈地主)等等,早就脱离了和我一样朝九晚九的程序员生活。当然这不是本篇文章要讨论的论题。

 

言归正传,由于就业率/失业率是经济的一大指标,特别是在失业福利高于全国其它地方的加州,失业率其实是个比较重要的东西。先上几个图,数据截止在2015年底。

 

图1:湾区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

图2:旧金山市区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

可以看到失业率低于2008经济危机,非常接近历史低点,房价已经在历史高点了。

 

由于房贷利率依然处于历史低点,而且贷款的标准和难度还是比较高,有房一族除非科技业大规模失业,房价崩盘的机率不大。但是对于投资房(此处指一般学区一般地段,现金砸高大上地区投资的土豪请忽略)来说,一来面对的租客是流动性比较大的周边产业,如果有裁员失业来临首当其冲;二来投资房的地区传统上价格波动性比自住房大得多,现在已经过了黄金时期了。

 

图3:加州历史失业率

333books.com 湾区失业率

从整个加州的历史失业率来看,这里有个调整的概率也比继续上涨的概率大。如果你也相信波段阴谋论,随着各大startup的紧缩,估计大家都准备再等等。当然好区自住房,看上了付得起,什么时候都得买,不然过一阵回头看,2007年买的都是便宜货。

 

个人觉得:投资房要慎重,保守的投资可以正现金流的已经不容易找到了。如果是负现金流赌房产升值尽量还是不做的好。

More bubbles coming: Bay Area Just Had The Strongest January in 3 Years

Where are the money coming from?

01/2016: Bay Area real estate had its strongest January in 3 years. Across the region’s nine counties, 3,372 single-family homes were sold.

Likewise, the median cost of homes rose by 16.5 percent from the year before, to $635,000, with similar year-over-year gains posted in Silicon Valley and the East Bay. In Santa Clara County, the $830,000 median was up by 11.4 percent from a year earlier, while in Alameda County, the $660,000 median represented a 14.8 percent gain from January 2015.

“There continues to be a lot of stress on the affordability front,” said Andrew LePage, research analyst for the CoreLogic real estate information service, which released the latest numbers. He observed that the region’s $635,000 median would once again buy next to nothing in the Silicon Valley hub, “except maybe a small vacant lot.”

Alain Pinel broker Rainy Hake, based in Saratoga, concurred: “Most of the homes that you have at this price point are kind of nondescript. It would be interesting to take that money and move to Portland, (Oregon), or Austin, Texas. We’re seeing a lot of exits from the Bay Area to some of these marketplaces that are more affordable and have an up-and-coming lifestyle.”

That said, the relative strength of the Bay Area market remains a matter of perspective.

For while the year-over-year numbers were robust, the volume of home sales across the region dipped markedly from December to January: down 36.1 percent for the region. Santa Clara County’s month-over-month sales were down 37 percent, while Alameda’s dropped 40.7 percent.

And viewed historically, January’s three-year sales high was actually about 20 percent lower than the average January, going back to 1988, which is as far back as CoreLogic’s database extends.

Still, LePage cautioned against reading too much into the month-to-month numbers, which also show a small decline in median prices.

January and February typically are slow months, as many people avoid house hunting during the winter. Also, December sales were unusually high as agents and loan writers finally got the hang of new federal mortgage rules that went into effect in October and delayed many closings until year’s end. Hence, the January sales drop-off may look unnaturally steep.

Amid the stock market downturn and China’s slowing economy, some agents have sensed a softening in home prices, especially in luxury homes.

While it’s possible that high-end sales “could eventually be impacted by an ongoing stock market downturn,” LePage said, “it’s also possible … that you would see what some people consider ‘safe haven’ investing, where wealthy individuals choose to park money in high-end real estate.”

Such trends are hard to measure, he said, but “as deals close over the next few weeks, we’ll begin to see whether there’s been an impact.”

再说盖房,要搞就搞大的,建一个出租公寓的回报率

举个栗子,地点是大部分美国本土的中小城镇,为简单易明,把一些繁锁的项目化零为整,省去不少字。

建地一亩,五十万买得;
属高密度住宅区,建多层,共三十单位出租公寓;
每单位两房一浴室,八百尺,另配一个专属停车位;
所有开发,建筑成本加起来,为$160 一尺;
总花费$4,340,000
平均月单位租$1,100
减去平均月单位摊分地税,保险,水费,垃圾费及其他环保费$300
再减去平均月单位摊分所有管理费用和预备维修费用$135
平均月单位净收入$665
共净年收入$239,400
年回报率5.51%

这是比较有经验的行家的数据,能做到这样才算合情合理,即使如此, 5.51%年回报率大家看了都没兴趣。因此,我们能看到大兴土木的,大多是有规模和边际效应的开发商,散户动不动求杠杆,想都不用想

然而假如在少数高度发展的城市,如纽约附近,湾区和南加等地区,或者大城市的中心地带,情形就不同了,同样的例子,只是地价大大的贵了,而租金却成倍增加。我们假如把地价设在二百万而租金设在二千一个月,年回报率就变成10.26%, 再或者可租到二千五一个月,那么年回报率就高达13.34%了,如果更牛的地王,租近三千,回报率就超过15%。妙的是,预期回报率高,就可以使用扛杆,扛杆把回报率抬到更高。不选对的,只选贵的

 

房价到顶了吗?现在买房会站岗吗?看这个信号

湾区的可以参考这篇:Must Read for Bay Area Investor: San Francisco Real Estate Cycles in past 30 Years

今天看到有个前辈说过一个房市见顶明显信号可看的话,就是从业人员都在做建筑商、开发商的时候。包括涉及房产有关行业人,如普通房产投资者、房产经纪、贷款经纪、各种各样的Contractors。

2005到2007如是,身边的朋友都是agent了,大部分人没生意做,所以很多Subcontractor, 如铺地板地毯的,做水管工的,做电工等等都部分或者全部主业转移做“建筑商”去追求建新房高利润了。最后危机一来大多让银行Foreclosure。

做建筑商赚钱多,尤其是市场在火的时候。但要看贼吃肉也要看贼挨打。开发和建筑周期长(从买地到卖出收回钱,一年半到两年是正常),在这个周期内资金链断裂就惨了。当时做高端情况尤为惨烈。其原因是高端资金占用大,贷款金额大,市场一旦向下,压下一个就是一大笔钱。而做低端房的,可以把建一个大房子的钱分散到好几个,怎么也能出手一两个。这样资金就回笼了。

目前湾区的投资群里面,还是要rehab的多。当然湾区建房成本之高令人乍舌。而现在地贵就不用说了,当大家都要建房,建筑行业的人工成本,贷款成本和材料成本大幅升高时,再买的就会站岗了!