【原创】看图说话:从失业率看为什么现在不是投资湾区的好时机(2016)

以下均为个人看法,欢迎讨论。

最近和几个投资房产的朋友聊聊天,大家基本同意这波湾区房价主要是科技产业的发展对人才的需求推动起来的。由于科技产业需要的人才多,周边的产业也得到了一定量的发展。

 

作为一个软件工程师,我觉得很可悲的是大部分科技企业的人才在这一波房价的增长里面都没有直接获利,相反是一边付着高房价(房租),一边背着“高科技企业让房租飞涨,我们都住不起房了”的骂名。这波真正得利的开发商(和一些有眼光的老一辈地主)等等,早就脱离了和我一样朝九晚九的程序员生活。当然这不是本篇文章要讨论的论题。

 

言归正传,由于就业率/失业率是经济的一大指标,特别是在失业福利高于全国其它地方的加州,失业率其实是个比较重要的东西。先上几个图,数据截止在2015年底。

 

图1:湾区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

图2:旧金山市区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

可以看到失业率低于2008经济危机,非常接近历史低点,房价已经在历史高点了。

 

由于房贷利率依然处于历史低点,而且贷款的标准和难度还是比较高,有房一族除非科技业大规模失业,房价崩盘的机率不大。但是对于投资房(此处指一般学区一般地段,现金砸高大上地区投资的土豪请忽略)来说,一来面对的租客是流动性比较大的周边产业,如果有裁员失业来临首当其冲;二来投资房的地区传统上价格波动性比自住房大得多,现在已经过了黄金时期了。

 

图3:加州历史失业率

333books.com 湾区失业率

从整个加州的历史失业率来看,这里有个调整的概率也比继续上涨的概率大。如果你也相信波段阴谋论,随着各大startup的紧缩,估计大家都准备再等等。当然好区自住房,看上了付得起,什么时候都得买,不然过一阵回头看,2007年买的都是便宜货。

 

个人觉得:投资房要慎重,保守的投资可以正现金流的已经不容易找到了。如果是负现金流赌房产升值尽量还是不做的好。

地主三境界

禅说,人生三境界:

初级第一境界:见山是山,见水是水。

对应的初级地主:为了抢房,抢便宜的房,好deal,砸现金全款买,先下手为强。

好处,当然是抢了一堆便宜的cash cow,后遗症就是时刻要修房,包括修理各种极品房客,还有房客的各种头疼“后妈”。于是一边欢快数钱得瑟自己的战绩,一边吐槽抱怨,建议要买些千年人参大补精神元气。结果,究竟是赚了还是亏了,只能是瞎子吃汤圆,心知肚明吧。

中级第二境界:见山不是山,见水不是水。

对应的中级地主:买房懂得如何巧用杠杆,借鸡下蛋。买好房子,找好房客,省心省力。

好处当然是烦心事少些,收租安稳。虽然cash flow少,难免要疑虑万一空置时间长了,怎么抗过去。万一,经济crash, 房子租不出价,怎么办?但是挂在墙上的大饼(未来增值)还是很圆满诱人。

高级第三境界:见山还是山,见水还是水。

对应的高级地主:实现资本运作,实际的房子早已有专人看管操作,不用劳心劳力抗战一线。不用疑虑,也不用得瑟,房子只是手中玩转的摇钱树。

以上纯属个人观点,请勿对号入座,欢迎讨论叨叨。

 

地主必备:这几条addendum加在你用的agent’s lease agreement

地主必备:这几条加在你用的agent’s lease agreement,事半功倍。

这是我自己根据常遇见的问题特别加上的。主要是为了免责。发现加了后, 并不影响签约。

Snow Ice removal:强调HOA不管的地方tenant负责,如steps, patio, parking place. 已经有两起相关的 sues了.

Delay:地主免reponsiblity, 比如上个tenant没有按时搬出,public work,

Long Term: 一个HOA开始有rent control, 新的rent可能要有waiting list. 和tenant签了5年lease,每12个月可以提出termination.

Habitable Place: 强调地下室和attic不能住人. 实际假装不知到.

Room Tempture: 最低60, 冻了水管tenant负责

Habitable condition: 如果不能住了,不能很快修好,lease terminates, 地主不管tenant任何事儿.

Temporary Heating: 修的时候,tenant用他们的电heater.

[这个黑]Minor Maintenance: Tenant自己管。 ¥50, 如果叫地主。列出items, 比如清理elbow.

Insurance: Tenant 买rental insurance,保他们自己的东西

More bubbles coming: Bay Area Just Had The Strongest January in 3 Years

Where are the money coming from?

01/2016: Bay Area real estate had its strongest January in 3 years. Across the region’s nine counties, 3,372 single-family homes were sold.

Likewise, the median cost of homes rose by 16.5 percent from the year before, to $635,000, with similar year-over-year gains posted in Silicon Valley and the East Bay. In Santa Clara County, the $830,000 median was up by 11.4 percent from a year earlier, while in Alameda County, the $660,000 median represented a 14.8 percent gain from January 2015.

“There continues to be a lot of stress on the affordability front,” said Andrew LePage, research analyst for the CoreLogic real estate information service, which released the latest numbers. He observed that the region’s $635,000 median would once again buy next to nothing in the Silicon Valley hub, “except maybe a small vacant lot.”

Alain Pinel broker Rainy Hake, based in Saratoga, concurred: “Most of the homes that you have at this price point are kind of nondescript. It would be interesting to take that money and move to Portland, (Oregon), or Austin, Texas. We’re seeing a lot of exits from the Bay Area to some of these marketplaces that are more affordable and have an up-and-coming lifestyle.”

That said, the relative strength of the Bay Area market remains a matter of perspective.

For while the year-over-year numbers were robust, the volume of home sales across the region dipped markedly from December to January: down 36.1 percent for the region. Santa Clara County’s month-over-month sales were down 37 percent, while Alameda’s dropped 40.7 percent.

And viewed historically, January’s three-year sales high was actually about 20 percent lower than the average January, going back to 1988, which is as far back as CoreLogic’s database extends.

Still, LePage cautioned against reading too much into the month-to-month numbers, which also show a small decline in median prices.

January and February typically are slow months, as many people avoid house hunting during the winter. Also, December sales were unusually high as agents and loan writers finally got the hang of new federal mortgage rules that went into effect in October and delayed many closings until year’s end. Hence, the January sales drop-off may look unnaturally steep.

Amid the stock market downturn and China’s slowing economy, some agents have sensed a softening in home prices, especially in luxury homes.

While it’s possible that high-end sales “could eventually be impacted by an ongoing stock market downturn,” LePage said, “it’s also possible … that you would see what some people consider ‘safe haven’ investing, where wealthy individuals choose to park money in high-end real estate.”

Such trends are hard to measure, he said, but “as deals close over the next few weeks, we’ll begin to see whether there’s been an impact.”

再说盖房,要搞就搞大的,建一个出租公寓的回报率

举个栗子,地点是大部分美国本土的中小城镇,为简单易明,把一些繁锁的项目化零为整,省去不少字。

建地一亩,五十万买得;
属高密度住宅区,建多层,共三十单位出租公寓;
每单位两房一浴室,八百尺,另配一个专属停车位;
所有开发,建筑成本加起来,为$160 一尺;
总花费$4,340,000
平均月单位租$1,100
减去平均月单位摊分地税,保险,水费,垃圾费及其他环保费$300
再减去平均月单位摊分所有管理费用和预备维修费用$135
平均月单位净收入$665
共净年收入$239,400
年回报率5.51%

这是比较有经验的行家的数据,能做到这样才算合情合理,即使如此, 5.51%年回报率大家看了都没兴趣。因此,我们能看到大兴土木的,大多是有规模和边际效应的开发商,散户动不动求杠杆,想都不用想

然而假如在少数高度发展的城市,如纽约附近,湾区和南加等地区,或者大城市的中心地带,情形就不同了,同样的例子,只是地价大大的贵了,而租金却成倍增加。我们假如把地价设在二百万而租金设在二千一个月,年回报率就变成10.26%, 再或者可租到二千五一个月,那么年回报率就高达13.34%了,如果更牛的地王,租近三千,回报率就超过15%。妙的是,预期回报率高,就可以使用扛杆,扛杆把回报率抬到更高。不选对的,只选贵的

 

Must Read for Bay Area Investor:  San Francisco Real Estate Cycles in past 30 Years

The original article is here: http: / / paragon – re.com/ 3_Recessions_2_Bubbles_and_a_Baby

Chart one and two: recession and recovery time span

The first chart below charts changes in dollar values, according to the Case-Shiller Index method (January 2000 = a home value of 100). The second chart graphs ups and downs by percentage changes at each turning point.

 

How I read (guess) chart 1&2:

  1. Peak most likely will take place at 2017 or 2018.
  2. At the worst it does down -27% (2008-2011), probably 2014 or 2015 level.
  3. With 1 and 2, you may “lose money” if you buy at median price in 2016.

Chart three: rebound in recovery

This Recovery vs. Previous Recoveries

The light blue columns in the above chart graph the home-value appreciation that occurred in the first three years of each recovery.

How I read (guess) chart 3:

Peak of this recovery/bubble will go over 100%.

Chart four five six: decline magnitude

Chart 4 below tracking the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Area, the data points refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher.

4. 1983 through 1995
(After Recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums

 

5. 1996 to Present

(After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums, Recovery

Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures — most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range.

6. The Recovery since 2012 (Case-Shiller)

Chart 6 above looks specifically at home price appreciation since 2012 when the current market recovery began. Generally speaking, the spring selling seasons have seen the most dramatic surges in appreciation.

Chart seven: buying a house? Don’t wait to the next year.

Chart eight: house vs condo

The Current Recovery: 2012 – Present

Chart nine: this recovery appreciates much faster

Longer-Term: 1993 – Present

Chart ten: San Francisco very expensive comparing to CA and US median

Comparing San Francisco, California & National
Median Price Appreciation

Chart eleven: rent is appreciating faster than price

San Francisco Rents

Besides, home prices, home rental rates are major indicators of what is occurring with housing costs and the local economy. If anything, rents have appreciated even more extremely than home prices in San Francisco (and other areas of the Bay Area) – and, of course, renters get no advantages from low interest rates, multiple tax deductions and advantages, or home-price appreciation over time. One classic indicator of an overpriced home market is when prices outpace rents. So far, this has not happened in San Francisco: Both types of housing costs have soared in recent years.

Chart twelve, thirteen: interest rate

Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981

Interest Rates: 1993 – 2015

Chart fourteen: still affordable?

Housing Affordability Index (HAI) Cycles, 1991 – Present

Chart fifteen: real money, inflation and interest rate adjusted

Chart sixteen to nineteen: most likely to pickup low/mid priced house cheap at a crash

Different Bay Area Market Segments:
Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

2000 to 2014

Updated Case-Shiller Price-Tier Charts
Low-Price Tier Homes: Under $587,000 as of 9/15

Mid-Price Tier Homes: $587,00 to $950,000 as of 9/15

High-Price Tier Homes: Over $950,000 as of 9/15

Conclusion/guess:

  1. Price appreciation will slow down in 2016, but no crash.
  2. Look for signs like lower tier houses prices surpassing 06/07 high, or rents going up but house price lagging.
  3. When recession comes, there’re 2 to 4 years to pick up good deals. Single family houses in higher tier will withhold value much better than lower tiers.
  4. If you are investing for cashflow in 2016, almost anywhere in US is better than bay area. I.e., invest in out-of-state rental.

 

Landloards: How to Profit Help the Needy by Renting to Section 8 Tenants

I am about to invest in an out of state property which is going to serve section 8 tenants. I found this article very helpful.

It can make a lot of sense for a landlord to rent to tenants who qualify for Section 8, or government subsidized, housing. In California, the Section 8 program is sponsored by county governments and subsidizes the rent payments for citizens unable to afford the entire amount of a market rate rental. The idea is that over time the tenants in the Section 8 program will become self-sufficient and essentially won’t need government assistance.

Subsidized housing in general has a certain negative stigma associated with it. There is this notion that subsidized tenants are worse tenants because they will “trash the place” or “won’t pay rent.” In my experience renting to hundreds of Section 8 tenants, I have encountered a very high quality of person and renter. In fact, focusing leasing efforts on subsidized renters was one of the biggest things that made my single-family business successful.

Section 8 can be a little tricky because different counties can have different rules. There has also been an increase in bureaucracy in the program, which is obviously a deterrent for landlords. On the whole, though, I still really believe in the Section 8 program.

Related: Rent to Section 8 or No?

Here are the six best reasons to give subsidized tenants a chance at your next rental.

6 Reasons for Landlords to Rent to Section 8 Tenants

1. Higher Rents and Built in Increases

Section 8 tenants pay a fixed percentage of their income, and the government or Section 8 program pays the difference. When I was trying to raise rents on a number of homes in my portfolio by increasing asking rental rates, I found that there were a lot of Section 8 tenants applying to the homes that were on the higher side of market rate. This actually makes a lot of sense because whether the Section 8 tenant rents a home that is $1,000 or $10,000, their portion of rent actually stays the same.

For example, if a Section 8 tenant makes $2,000 per month, they will only pay about 40% of that as their portion, so about $800 in this case. If this person rents a house that costs $1,000, then the government will pay $200, and if they rent a house that costs $10,000, the government with pay $9,200. The tenant pays $800 in both scenarios.

There are obviously limits to how much the government can pay, and there is also some diligence to make sure that the rental rate is around market, but as long as it’s close, there usually isn’t an issue. In some cases, I have been able to get about $100 over the nearest market rate comp.

Many Section 8 programs also have built in rent increases that the landlord can apply for on an annual basis. The tenant is indifferent because they only pay the fixed monthly rate. Again, the rent increases need to be around market, but any increase is a good thing for an owner.

2. Tenants Will Stay Longer

The key here is to make sure the homes you are leasing out are in really good condition and that you are a really good landlord. If something is broken, then fix it! I’m not saying that you should put in gold plated countertops, but it is important to make the home nice and a really good place to live. If you do this, then it is likely that the tenants will stay longer.

My Section 8 tenants stayed over three years on average. One of the main reasons is that I was a good landlord, but it was also due to the fact that it takes a while to make enough money to get off of the Section 8 voucher. This is by no means a knock on the tenants – they were great people; they just didn’t make a lot of money and couldn’t afford a place that was better.

The other reality is that there aren’t going to be many better places if you take care of your property and are a good landlord. There are loads of Americans who will be renters for life, and if you are a good landlord, this will end up benefitting you.

The real thrust of this point is that you make more money as a landlord if you can keep your tenants in place. Vacancy and turnover costs are killer. Section 8 tenants are more likely to stay long term, and remember that you also get a higher rental rate.

3. County-Guaranteed Rent

This is obviously a safe net. Many Section 8 tenants have lower credit than an ideal tenant. However, if the tenant loses their job or comes up short on a payment, then the county, or in some cases the city, will step in and pay you the entire amount owed.

Related: Section 8 Success Story

I was somewhat shocked when I found this out. I was renting homes in lower end cities that were partially guaranteed by other cities in the same county with ten million dollar homes. While you never want a tenant to be unable to pay, it helps reduce risk if you know you have a wealthy guarantor (particularly in the form of the government).

4. Lower Maintenance

I have heard people say that “Section 8 tenants destroy the place!” In my experience of renting to hundreds of Section 8 tenants, they are actually less likely to destroy your home, and they also require less maintenance! The reason is that most of my requests for maintenance happen within the first month of a tenant moving in.

This makes sense because we have just done repairs, and the house hasn’t been lived in for a while. As a landlord you expect this for the first month, and usually the maintenance issues iron out over time. Since Section 8 tenants stay longer in a home, the average maintenance costs end up going way down.

The other part of this is that many Section 8 tenants realize that they will never own their own home. I won’t get into the social issues of this point; it is just a financial reality. Because of this, many Section 8 tenants end up taking “ownership” of the home they rent… once they are there for a while. This is a key point because it is important as a landlord to make the home nice and fix the things that go wrong so tenants want to stay.

I’m not making a social comment, but purely a business one. If you do your job as a landlord, then the maintenance will be lower with Section 8 tenants as compared to regular tenants.

5. Tenant Accountability and Extra Screening

It is really hard to get a Section 8 voucher in many communities. There is far more demand than there is supply of vouchers and homes willing to take Section 8. This creates an environment of accountability for the tenants once they get into a good home – they will do everything they can to keep it. Again, it goes back to the point that it is important as a landlord to be a good owner.

Along with accountability, Section 8 tenants go through extra screening in order to get their voucher. Due to the high demand to get a Section 8 voucher, the program can be selective with its criteria. Some municipalities will do background checks and that type of thing. You should be doing your own screening of Section 8 tenants, but it is always nice to know that they have been screened by the government already.

6. You’re Helping People and Making Money at the Same Time

I’m in real estate to make money. I have to be because it’s my business. However, I also feel a responsibility to give back to society and the communities where I do business. If you read most of my blog posts, you will know that I’m usually against most things government.

The Section 8 program really is a good thing, though. One of the most fundamental needs of humans is to have a safe place to live, and this is particularly true of children. It is the responsibility of the community, which includes businesses, to take care of those who are less fortunate. The selfish reality is that giving back is also good for business. The biggest bang for your buck in terms of giving back is to provide a great home for a family who couldn’t otherwise afford it.

Embrace the Section 8 program, and programs like it. It will be good for your wallet, and your soul.

Landlords, weigh in: What do you think of renting to Section 8 tenants? What has your experience been with this?