【原创】看图说话:从失业率看为什么现在不是投资湾区的好时机(2016)

以下均为个人看法,欢迎讨论。

最近和几个投资房产的朋友聊聊天,大家基本同意这波湾区房价主要是科技产业的发展对人才的需求推动起来的。由于科技产业需要的人才多,周边的产业也得到了一定量的发展。

 

作为一个软件工程师,我觉得很可悲的是大部分科技企业的人才在这一波房价的增长里面都没有直接获利,相反是一边付着高房价(房租),一边背着“高科技企业让房租飞涨,我们都住不起房了”的骂名。这波真正得利的开发商(和一些有眼光的老一辈地主)等等,早就脱离了和我一样朝九晚九的程序员生活。当然这不是本篇文章要讨论的论题。

 

言归正传,由于就业率/失业率是经济的一大指标,特别是在失业福利高于全国其它地方的加州,失业率其实是个比较重要的东西。先上几个图,数据截止在2015年底。

 

图1:湾区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

图2:旧金山市区房价指数,蓝色(右边纵轴)vs失业率,红色(左边纵轴)

333books.com 湾区房价

可以看到失业率低于2008经济危机,非常接近历史低点,房价已经在历史高点了。

 

由于房贷利率依然处于历史低点,而且贷款的标准和难度还是比较高,有房一族除非科技业大规模失业,房价崩盘的机率不大。但是对于投资房(此处指一般学区一般地段,现金砸高大上地区投资的土豪请忽略)来说,一来面对的租客是流动性比较大的周边产业,如果有裁员失业来临首当其冲;二来投资房的地区传统上价格波动性比自住房大得多,现在已经过了黄金时期了。

 

图3:加州历史失业率

333books.com 湾区失业率

从整个加州的历史失业率来看,这里有个调整的概率也比继续上涨的概率大。如果你也相信波段阴谋论,随着各大startup的紧缩,估计大家都准备再等等。当然好区自住房,看上了付得起,什么时候都得买,不然过一阵回头看,2007年买的都是便宜货。

 

个人觉得:投资房要慎重,保守的投资可以正现金流的已经不容易找到了。如果是负现金流赌房产升值尽量还是不做的好。

地主三境界

禅说,人生三境界:

初级第一境界:见山是山,见水是水。

对应的初级地主:为了抢房,抢便宜的房,好deal,砸现金全款买,先下手为强。

好处,当然是抢了一堆便宜的cash cow,后遗症就是时刻要修房,包括修理各种极品房客,还有房客的各种头疼“后妈”。于是一边欢快数钱得瑟自己的战绩,一边吐槽抱怨,建议要买些千年人参大补精神元气。结果,究竟是赚了还是亏了,只能是瞎子吃汤圆,心知肚明吧。

中级第二境界:见山不是山,见水不是水。

对应的中级地主:买房懂得如何巧用杠杆,借鸡下蛋。买好房子,找好房客,省心省力。

好处当然是烦心事少些,收租安稳。虽然cash flow少,难免要疑虑万一空置时间长了,怎么抗过去。万一,经济crash, 房子租不出价,怎么办?但是挂在墙上的大饼(未来增值)还是很圆满诱人。

高级第三境界:见山还是山,见水还是水。

对应的高级地主:实现资本运作,实际的房子早已有专人看管操作,不用劳心劳力抗战一线。不用疑虑,也不用得瑟,房子只是手中玩转的摇钱树。

以上纯属个人观点,请勿对号入座,欢迎讨论叨叨。

 

地主必备:这几条addendum加在你用的agent’s lease agreement

地主必备:这几条加在你用的agent’s lease agreement,事半功倍。

这是我自己根据常遇见的问题特别加上的。主要是为了免责。发现加了后, 并不影响签约。

Snow Ice removal:强调HOA不管的地方tenant负责,如steps, patio, parking place. 已经有两起相关的 sues了.

Delay:地主免reponsiblity, 比如上个tenant没有按时搬出,public work,

Long Term: 一个HOA开始有rent control, 新的rent可能要有waiting list. 和tenant签了5年lease,每12个月可以提出termination.

Habitable Place: 强调地下室和attic不能住人. 实际假装不知到.

Room Tempture: 最低60, 冻了水管tenant负责

Habitable condition: 如果不能住了,不能很快修好,lease terminates, 地主不管tenant任何事儿.

Temporary Heating: 修的时候,tenant用他们的电heater.

[这个黑]Minor Maintenance: Tenant自己管。 ¥50, 如果叫地主。列出items, 比如清理elbow.

Insurance: Tenant 买rental insurance,保他们自己的东西

天上能掉那几种馅饼WTF is a “passive income”?

知乎体_操,问:什么生意是天上掉馅饼的呢?

Most common passive income:

  • Rental income from properties that other people manage and repair
  • Royalties from books, music and other creative works
  • Income from businesses you own but don’t operate
  • Owning vending machines, laundromats, arcade games and other hands-off entreprises with one or two employees
  • Peer-to-peer lending
  • Dividends from stocks and ETFs
  • REITs and other income-oriented market investments
  • Bonds and bond ladders

What would you do in real estate with $200k in cash?

Cash counting stock equity refreshment for google

Is it a good problem to have?

For many Bay Area people looking for a single family home in top school district, 200K is barely the down payment you need to buy your own home. But assuming you have your primary residency or you are worried about the bay area market as a whole, here are some suggestions from the forum:

One investor from IL says

Buy a McDonalds franchise!  McDonalds….the world’s largest real estate company that also sells burgers.  Seriously, like @Ryan D. said your options are endless.  Make money, but do it in a way that is fun and makes you happy.  Do you want to be a landlord?  Do you want to do multiple projects at once?  BRRR?  For me, I would use it as a down payment on an apartment complex, hire a great property manager, and sit back and collect.  Or maybe I would BRRR.  Depends how I’m feeling that week.  🙂

 

One investor from FL says

1. 30% or $60k in REITs.  They have a rate of return much higher than a savings account, percentage depends on the trust, less risk than stocks, and no flipping or management involved.  

2. 30% or $60k – Purchase a SFR or CONDO in Broward Cty FL to LEASE-OPTION to a tenant that wants to purchase YOUR property, not just rent it.  They will pay you monthly cash flow.  The option terms negotiable, a portion of the rent will go toward your tenants future down payment to purchase the property 3 – 8 years later.  Tenant maintenance CAN be part of the deal.  

3. 40% or $80k – Vacant Land Investment.  It is a buy, hold, and WAIT strategy, but VERY lucrative.  Investors scoop up & sell the land early, pre-development.  The big developers might take a few years to several years to come back and purchase, but when they do . . . this is when you cash your check.

Investor from Texas

 

I can answer you question with what I DID with 200+k.

Bought a small apartment from a mom & pop RE, in a great location.

Spent another 90k out of pocket for the rehab.

Filled with qualified tenants and cut expenses almost in 1/2.

Now it cash flow +/-15% and is worth almost double what I paid.

In a another year, refinance some cash out and repeat the possess.

Investor from Alabama

I would buy 8 $25,000 houses and have them rented out through section 8 for at least $800.00 each bringing in over $6400 a month. I would be patient and look for 3/2 or 4/2 houses that need a little work in a decent neighborhood but can be purchased and fixed up for under $25,000.00.

 

 

2015美国人要赚多少年薪才能买得起房,第一名旧金山哭晕在厕所

2015美国主要都市区买房需要的大概年薪如下,注意第一名到第二名的差别

17明尼安那波利斯:中间房价:229,200;月供:1,189;年薪:51,000

16 达拉斯:中间房价:214,200;月供:1,235;年薪:53,000

15 休斯顿:中间房价:221,100;月供:1,252;年薪:53,500

14 费城:中间房价231,700;月供:1,269;年薪:54,500

13 巴尔的摩:中间房价:254,500;月供:1,303;年薪:56,000

12 芝加哥:中间房价:230,500;月供:1,424;年薪:61,000

11 萨克拉门托:中间房价:291,000;月供:1,435;年薪:61,500

10 迈阿密:中间房价:289,900;月供:1,476;年薪:63,500

9 波特兰:中间房价:314,800;月供:1,516;年薪:65,000

8 丹佛:中间房价:362,900;月供:1,631;年薪:70,000

7 西雅图:中间房价:385,300;月供:1,822;年薪:78,000

6 华盛顿:中间房价:403,800;月供:1,937;年薪:83,000

5 波士顿:中间房价:414,600;月供:2,010;年薪:86,000

4 洛杉矶:中间房价:445,200;月供:2,060;年薪:88,500

3 纽约:中间房价:410,400;月供:2,117;年薪:91,000

2 圣地亚哥:中间房价:547,800;月供:2,446;年薪:105,000

1 旧金山:中间房价:841,600;月供:3,684;年薪:158,000

California investors have to register their non-CA LLC with CA state

One of the best benefits of real estate investment is to save on tax. However, their is a state that makes it very difficult if not impossible to avoid tax for investment out of state. One of the most popular question for newbies is: “I’m a California resident with an LLC formed in Ohio / Indiana / OR-turnkey-haven that holds my properties in that state.  Do I have to register my LLC with the California Secretary of State and file a California tax return and pay the $800 LLC Tax every year?” WTH, yes, you got the number right,

$800

 

The answer is almost always YES since California considers the LLC as “doing business in California” and therefore required to do all the things mentioned in the first paragraph above if you, as a member of the LLC, do anything on the LLC’s behalf while you are in California.  Below are two excerpts from FTB Form 3556 that I’m pretty sure indicts the whole lot of you!

I hope this clarifies the issue.  Feel free to reach out with any questions.

再说盖房,要搞就搞大的,建一个出租公寓的回报率

举个栗子,地点是大部分美国本土的中小城镇,为简单易明,把一些繁锁的项目化零为整,省去不少字。

建地一亩,五十万买得;
属高密度住宅区,建多层,共三十单位出租公寓;
每单位两房一浴室,八百尺,另配一个专属停车位;
所有开发,建筑成本加起来,为$160 一尺;
总花费$4,340,000
平均月单位租$1,100
减去平均月单位摊分地税,保险,水费,垃圾费及其他环保费$300
再减去平均月单位摊分所有管理费用和预备维修费用$135
平均月单位净收入$665
共净年收入$239,400
年回报率5.51%

这是比较有经验的行家的数据,能做到这样才算合情合理,即使如此, 5.51%年回报率大家看了都没兴趣。因此,我们能看到大兴土木的,大多是有规模和边际效应的开发商,散户动不动求杠杆,想都不用想

然而假如在少数高度发展的城市,如纽约附近,湾区和南加等地区,或者大城市的中心地带,情形就不同了,同样的例子,只是地价大大的贵了,而租金却成倍增加。我们假如把地价设在二百万而租金设在二千一个月,年回报率就变成10.26%, 再或者可租到二千五一个月,那么年回报率就高达13.34%了,如果更牛的地王,租近三千,回报率就超过15%。妙的是,预期回报率高,就可以使用扛杆,扛杆把回报率抬到更高。不选对的,只选贵的